Elasticities of VAT Collection and Mexican Imports: Analysis by subchapters in the period 2010-2022

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Javier Moreno Espinosa
Leovardo Mata Mata
Diego Hernández Cortés
Pablo Raúl Valenzuela Reyes


This article obtained the elasticities of the Value Added Tax (VAT) collection with respect to merchandise imports classified in the 689 subchapters of the International Harmonized System 2010-2022. Evidence of an equilibrium relationship, in the long run, was found by cointegration in a VEC model. The results show that 65 subchapters explain 80% of the value of imports with different elasticities, which allows identifying the sensitivity of VAT collection in generating income from imports. The subchapters that stand out are plastic tubes and accessories, (elasticity 1.4622), devices for cutting or connecting electrical circuits (elasticity 1.3542), rubber and inflatable joints (elasticity 1.3513), electrical ignition devices and devices for motors (elasticity 1.3340) and plastic containers (elasticity 1.3173). Elasticities allow calculating increases in VAT collection due to movements in the value of imports, such as increases in VAT of US$ 212 million due to movements in the import of machinery, appliances, and mechanical devices.


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Moreno Espinosa, J., Mata Mata, L., Hernández Cortés, D., & Valenzuela Reyes, P. R. (2023). Elasticities of VAT Collection and Mexican Imports: Analysis by subchapters in the period 2010-2022. The Anáhuac Journal, 23(2), 68–95. https://doi.org/10.36105/theanahuacjour.2023v23n2.03
Biografía del autor/a

Javier Moreno Espinosa, Universidad Panamericana, Mexico

Javier Moreno Espinosa is a research professor at the Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences of the Universidad Panamericana, has a PhD in Strategic Management and Development Policies from Universidad Anáhuac Mexico and is a member of the National System of Researchers level candidate in Mexico.
His research areas are focused on Economic Theory, Public Finance, Artificial Intelligence and Text Mining applied in social sciences.

Leovardo Mata Mata, Universidad Anáhuac México, Mexico

Leovardo Mata Mata is a Professor-Researcher at the Faculty of Economics and Business of the Universidad Anáhuac México. He is a member of the Mexican National System of Researchers by Conahcyt Level I. He has a Ph.D. in Financial Sciences from the EGADE Business School of the Tecnológico de Monterrey and a master’s degree in Economics by El Colegio de México. His research areas are Economic Theory, Econometrics, Numerical Analysis and Earth Sciences.

Diego Hernández Cortés, Universidad Panamericana, Mexico

Diego Hernández Cortés, a 21-year-old Mexican student of Administration and International Business at the Universidad Panamericana, considers that research is fundamental for the creation of knowledge. His research interest is in the social sciences, specifically in foreign trade issues. His commitment to contributing to the generation of knowledge profiles him as an agent of change.

Pablo Raúl Valenzuela Reyes, Independent consultant, Mexico

Pablo Raúl Valenzuela Reyes has a degree in Accounting from the Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Tamaulipas. He has a master’s degree in Administration from Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México. He has a PhD degree in Senior Management from the Postgraduate Center of the State of Mexico. He is currently an advisor in Grupo Tractores del Norte (Case-New Holland) and has participated in the Board of Directors of multiple companies, such as Agroasemex, Grupo Financiero Inverlat-ScotiaBank, Grupo Mezgo, Grupo Ticonsa, Grupo Droguerías y Farmacias El Fénix.


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